Friday, August 26, 2016

Mafia Round 6 - Day 1

As the cold embrace of night continued to smother the town few people dared venture into its murky depths, instead choosing to sip their tea and curl up warm, hoping that tonight is not their last.

Some, however, had no such qualms. Wandering from door to door she left her cookies with a smile and a skip in her step. She didn't knock on the doors lest she disturb the occupants, instead waiting for the people to wake and find the treats in the morning. Their containers should stop them from going stale.

Finally she visited the last house, just as the occupant was leaving.

Snow the Doctor blinked at the person she had planned to heal. Dressed head to toe in black and with a knife tucked into their waist band, a shocked expression on her face.

"You're the.. But.. I came to heal you! I have cookies! Please let me live! You have to let me live if I have cookies! Cookies are life!"

The figure in black took their tub and opened it, smiling at the smiley face sticker. After having a bite their suspicions were confirmed, they were delicious. That paired with the hopeful expression on the poor girls face was almost enough to make them reconsider their actions. However..

"Sorry, but cookies always taste better with a bit of murder."

Whipping the knife free the poor doctor barely had time to scream for help before she was collapsed on the ground, blood pooling around her fragile form, dead.


In the morning the people in the town awoke to cookies and the dead body of the cookies' maker. Who would give them cookies now?

---

Players:
1) DEM
2) Dug
3) Fabi
4) Jimithy
5) Raven
6) Snow
7) Star
8) Taia

Roles:
Cop
Doctor 
Hidden Townie
Hidden Townie
Hidden Townie
Godfather 
Hidden Mafia
Hidden Neutral

Day has begun. You can now talk amongst yourself and choose one person to have hung, majority vote is four people. To vote put CastVote[name]. You can also choose to skip day by putting CastVoteSkipDay. This day will end on Monday the 29th at 8pm (Tuesday the 30th 5am for Raven, Monday the 29th 12pm for Fabi and Dugglyn) Good luck. 

104 comments:

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

I hope I did a sufficient job of writing up your death Snowy! Sowwy if not >_<

We Are Like Young Volcanoes said...

Rude

We Are Like Young Volcanoes said...

(You did a great job)

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

Thanks sis :)

Raven Astracae said...

Nooo, Snow, fellow Australian. RIP.

So the information we have right now....

1) Snow, the doctor has been killed
2) There should be a cop with an investigation result on somebody, this result might be wrong if there's a framer.

Things we might have...

1) A busybody could have seen the murder take place


None of the other roles seem to give investigative results, so since it's day one, I guess that's the information we have to work with.

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

Shit

Also Snow was the Doctor again

Heh

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

But also if any of us die now, that's it

Shit

RIP Snow

I have no useful info

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

Actually! The story seems to imply that the Mafia person who took the kill was the person Snow decided to heal.

That could be useful info

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

Yes, Snow was the doctor again which amused me to no end :P

Star Inkbright said...

Nooooooo!! RIP Snow! D:

I'm sad to lose the doctor too. :(

Taia, Raisin, A Good Bear (actually undead) :) said...

Oh no, Snow! :(

Well at least now a trigger happy can't kill the doctor by accident. :/

On the bright side, there was only one kill, so hidden neutral probably isn't a serial killer?

Star Inkbright said...

Right. Three hidden townies.

Hidden town possibilities:
Citizen
Busybody
Twins
Trigger Happy

Right. Citizen is a bit boring so I doubt there are any of them.
I think we have two twins and then either a trigger happy or a busybody. Because I mean, you can't have more than one twin.
Jimithy thinks that there might be a citizen though (and no twins) because there is a large townie majority.
(Personally I think it's unlikely).

Jimithy's saying (he doesn't have data, and we're trying to write down anything Mafia-related we say so as not to break rules. He can confirm that he said this later) that if there's twins, the Hidden Mafia is likely a mole, to make it more exciting.
But /I/ say that because there's five townies abd only two mafia (large townie majority), the other hidden mafia is likely to be powerful. Moles aren't very powerful. Me, Jimithy and Dem therefore think that the hidden Mafia might be something like a kidnapper, which is more powerful.

I promise we haven't said anything else. Whenever we startbto say anything, I say "wait stop let me write this down." We are being very careful.

Star Inkbright said...

A kidnapper is the only really powerful mafia, so I reckon we might have one. However, we've had quite a few similar roles in recent games, so maybe not.

Jimithy reckons the framer might be quite good.

Not likely to be mafioso, otherwise I doubt it'd say "hidden."

Dugglyn Carzainia said...

Shoot, the doctor is already gone.


Okay.


Well so we know Snow tried to heal one of the Mafia members, so that obviously means she thought that person was going to be a target, meaning this person might have done well in previous games.
The problem is everyone has done well in previous games.
And
It's also possible she would try to save one of Star's siblings because they've never played before and so Snow might have thought the Mafia might have just wanted to kill someone they didn't really know.


Also we know the Mafia targeted Snow and so we should figure out a possible motive for that (I would imagine as these games go one, first kills get less random because people begin to see how people do well or may be a threat to them)

Dugglyn Carzainia said...

Also, if there was a citizen I think it would just say citizen, not hidden townie?
I could be wrong, but that is how past hosts have done it.

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

SHIT

I just actually looked at my email

I read the post and I was like "oh yay I'm not dead! That's great! I'm all good!

BUT NO

Guys, I'm gonna die soonish and there's no doctor. The hidden neutral is an arsonist and they doused my house, and I will find them and make them pay dammit.

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

IN CASE I DIE I LEAVE MY STUFF TO HENRY BECAUSE I CAN'T TRUST ANY OF YOU

If I was a cop or busybody, I investigated Snow and am now kicking myself over it
If I was a trigger happy, I decided to do nothing and am now kicking myself over it even more than the previous scenario
If I was a twin, I did nothing because I had nothing to do and I'm now kicking myself over the fact that I'll have to leave my precious twinnie behind <3
I'm just gonna say outright that I'm not a citizen



I wonder if a survivor vest would protect against the arsonist.

Maybe not protect against dousing (that would make no sense), but protect if it was worn when the arsonist lighted the doused houses?

This has absolutely no bearing on the current game. I'm just rambling to try to distract myself from my impending demise.

Star Inkbright said...

They didn't kill Jimithy or Dem on the first night, so the Mafia might be nice people.

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

@Star Yeah, but I still wouldn't want to leave any of my stuff to them.

The hidden Mafia had better be a mole. That way we just have to find and hang the arsonist and godfather to stop the killings. I mean, we'd still have to hang the mole, but we could take our time about it because the Mole can't kill anyone. And we could rest a lot easier if it was just them left.

Star Inkbright said...

@Dugglyn: Gooood pooooint

Dem and Jimithy just said that if they were the Mafia, they'd probably try to kill me :P

@Fabi: Okay. Thank you. :)

*doubts Fabi is lying, personally*
*I mean, what would be the point?*
*UNLESS she's a serial killer trying to avoid detection . . . but then we'd know she was a liar as soon as thebserial killer killed someone, so maybe not*

Star Inkbright said...

Okay. Now we know (ish) there's an arsonist, it's less likely that the mafia are powerful.

Dugglyn Carzainia said...

@Star or one of them could be a Mafia member. It's just a possibility but honestly idek where to start.



So if Fabi is telling the truth that would be unfortunate.

Dugglyn Carzainia said...

@Star I figured. BUT it is unlikely both of them would be in the Mafia and so the other person would most likely be someone we all know better and they might say starting off with killing Star is too suspicious.

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

There is a 14.2857142857143% chance that any two people would be the Mafia together :) *feels it's okay to say that cause that doesn't really help any of you*

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

I was trying to think of a reason I might lie

And then I was like "wait why am I doing this?"

The best I can come up with is that maybe I would say I was doused so the Mafia would be like "oh hey our arsonist buddy got Fabi covered. Let's kill somebody else instead!"

However that's also a really stupid plan that could backfire in several different ways.

So yeah.

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

Actually my maths is wrong!!!

Because any one person has a 2/8 percent chance of being Mafia, then the person after that has a 1/7 chance of being the Mafia so overall it's a chance of 2/56 I think which is 1/28 which is 3.57%

But that doesn't seem right. Umm..

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

Wait is that number right? It doesn't look right. Looks can be deceiving though.

Hm. Time for some maths.

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

No that number wasn't right but I think my new number is less right.

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

Help xD

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

I'm on it

Gimme a minute

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

I hate probability trees.

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

Yeah 1/28 is right

If we assign each player with a letter A through H, the possibilities are s={AB, AC, AD, AE, AF, AG, AH, BC, BD, BE, BF, BG, BH, CD, CE, CF, CG, CH, DE, DF, DG, DH, EF, EG, EH, FG, FH, GH}

So that's 28 options, all equally likely.

Dugglyn Carzainia said...

I HATE PROBABILITY
*RUNS AND HIDES*

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

Ah okay. There you go guys xD There's a 3.57% chance of any two people being the Mafia together.

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

I didn't draw a tree.

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

THE PROBABILITY WILL FIND YOU DUG

Dark Midnight said...

Just want to point out that me and Jimithy and unlikely to be the Mafia (especially as there are only 2 Mafia) because we have no idea what we are doing.

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

We were always taught to draw the stupid tree at school and you have no idea how many times that evil tree screwed me over in maths -_-

Also Dug, email :)


Having no idea what you're doing doesn't stop you from potentially being the Mafia. I don't pick the roles, the random Mafia generator does.

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

Eh I don't think you're likely to be the Mafia together (in fact, there's a 96.43% chance you're not), but one of you could very well be the Mafia alongside someone who's played before.

In fact, there's a 42.86% chance that exactly one of you two is the Mafia.

Though even if it were only a 1% chance of happening, it could still very well have happened, so I don't think these numbers mean anything.

Star Inkbright said...

I love the probability trees!! Opportunity to waste lesson writing random numbers!!

Jimithy guesses that Dark is the townie.
He told me to write that.

Star Inkbright said...

No. Those probabilities are wrong. It's not 1/8 chance of one person being a mafia it's 1/4, because there are two mafia.

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

@star we already corrected it to 2/8 :)

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

...

Honestly talking about maths is not helping us sniff out the Mafia members

But I rest my case about my number being right. There are definitely 28 possible 2-person combinations, all equally likely. :-) :-)

Star Inkbright said...

@Jai: Ohhh :P

Star Inkbright said...

Honestly I don't think we can lynch anyone today. Not enough evidence.

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

Yeah, it'd take a lot to get me to vote for someone on day one.

Has everyone commented at least once?

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

Part of me really wants to skip day because it would be better for my schedule, but also I think letting the whole day play out might make the Mafia and arsonist impatient and maybe they'd slip up! Kind of a long shot though. :-/ But a long shot is better than no shot at all and I am not throwing away my shot I am not throwing away my shot hey yo I'm just like my country I'm young scrappy and hungry and I am not throwing away my shot!

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

There are seven players left.
Taia has commented.
Raven has commented.
Star has commented.
Dug has commented.
Fabi has commented.

Dem and Jimithy have kinda commented through Star.

Taia, Raisin, A Good Bear (actually undead) :) said...

*war flashbacks to statistics class 2014*
*shudders*

--> Yo, Dark has commented on her own behalf, too. ^^

--> Um, I had something to say while I was reading up but I can't remember what so I'm going to assume somebody else said it already. :P

It seems to me like we have more leads to follow about which roles might be around, than about who's in them, yet? Unless we can guess who Snow might have wanted to heal or why she was targeted(and not somebody else), I don't think we realistically can lynch anyone today. :/

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

Ok Taia, let us know if you remember.

And it sounds like everyone's had a chance to talk, but I still think I'm not gonna vote to skip just yet. I'm definitely not in favor of lynching anyone, but I've got a bit of a gut feeling that says wait.

I can guess who Snow might have wanted to heal, but it would be just that, a guess. I'd definitely never hang someone over a guess. Also I have more than one guess.

Star Inkbright said...

Dark says we should lynch someone so we find out their role. Jimithy agrees.

I'd appreciate if we could not skip day until me & siblings are all home (in fifteen hours or so) and they have signal and can comment on their own phones. We're on a campsite in a forest and I'm the only one with signal. It's not ideal. (Jimithy has signal of he climbs on the roof though!)

Star Inkbright said...

Jimithy has decided that Dark is a neutral or a townie. He's guessed that I am a twin. Dark thinks that Jimithy is a Mafia member.

*shrugs*

Raven Astracae said...

So assuming Fabi's not doing the lying, can we try and work out why the arso would attack her first?

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

I'm not cool with lynching someone just to figure out their role. The risk is way too high at this point in the game.

I'm very much ok with waiting though.

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

[shrugs]

I don't really know. It may have been random, it may not. They probably wanted someone they considered a strong player who wouldn't die? (Cause if I'd died, they couldn't have ignited me later). It's also in their best interest to target someone who doesn't look like Mafia, because they can win with the Mafia. However, since it was the first night I couldn't have done anything that made me look like Mafia or like a Townie.

Star Inkbright said...

They could have just roled a dice . . .

Idk any particular reason to target Fabi.
Or to target Snow, for that matter.

Raven Astracae said...

Yeah, alright, that seems fair.

Dark Midnight said...

Ok so the only reason I think Fabi would lie was if she was the hidden neutral and wanted everyone to think there was an Arsonist.

I didn't say we should kill someone to find out their role. I said to Jimithy that maybe we should murder star to see her role in response to his insistance that Star is a twin. (Personally I'm not convinced)

Dark Midnight said...

Sorry I meant hanged.

I also think that the neutral is probably someone with killing power due to the low number of mafia.

Dark Midnight said...

I would also like to point out if the neutral is one of those impersonator people who steal a dead person's role we might still have a doctor. Or someone with doctor powers. Which is kinda the same thing.

Dugglyn Carzainia said...

I almost said what if Jai is the Mafia and now I feel stupid XD

I do stuff like that all the time OMLI

Dark Midnight said...

Haha. Star does stuff like that.

By impersonator person I mean con artist.

Dugglyn Carzainia said...

@Dark that'd be great, though I am not sure Fabi is lying? Though now I hope she is because it'd be great to have someone with doctor powers and then that could mean Fabi is either a Mafia member or the neutral though of course I don't really think she's lying. But I could be wrong!

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

I wish there was a Con Artist too. :-(

Unfortunately though, I'm not lying.

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

"I almost said what if Jai is the Mafia"
*chuckles darkly and looms above Dugglyn*
*somehow*
*despite her being taller*
Oh Duggy. I'm not the Mafia. I'm the Pupper Master, The Game Master, The One Who Watches Over You All.
Fear me.





:P

Taia, Raisin, A Good Bear (actually undead) :) said...

*puts on detective trenchcoat* OK, so Star said before that Jimithy has decided Dark is a neutral/townie and Star's a twin, and that Dark thinks that Jimithy is a mafia member. -- If you guys still think those things, can you explain any reasoning, or are they more just early hunches?

Raven Astracae said...

Fabi, in my opinion is both the most and least suspicious person right now. Because she has kind of provided the only bit of information we can work with right now, which was a good thing. But also, with so little information on day 1 she could have said literally anything and we would have had to at least entertain the idea she was telling to truth.

So maybe she's helping, but maybe she's buying time.

I guess everyone is either helping or buying time tho.

I feel in my gut though, that I could believe that Fabi was town.

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

Yeah, um, I'm kind of counting on time to back me up. The arsonist isn't gonna settle for just dousing me. I mean, I guess they could, but it wouldn't be very good for their long-term game.

Star Inkbright said...

Yeah, that's true. If there is an arsonist, someone else should be doused tomorrow. I seriously doubt Fabi is lying.

*sigh* *would prefer a con artist*

Dark Midnight said...

I don't think Fabi is lying. That's just the only reason I think she could be lying.

I still think Jimithy is Mafia. Mainly because probability shows at least one of us is the Mafia and I think he's more likely to be Mafia than Star. Yes I know that's not enough T to hang him or convince anyone else. I don't expect to.

Dark Midnight said...

Also because he doesn't think I'm Mafifa. Which is suspicious because usually in every game he thinks I'm the evil person.

Star Inkbright said...

Does the cop get "guilty" for the arsonist?

Star Inkbright said...

Jimithy's defense to that: She normally is!

Dark Midnight said...

So I asked Jimithy why he thought I was townie or neutral and Star was twin. He said his theories were all based on probabilty.

Silente Tempest (Jai) - St Of Sinners said...

The cop will get a result of guilty for the arsonist, yes. On account that they are a hostile neutral.

Jimithy Tayithy said...

Oh hey i now have WiFi

Jimithy Tayithy said...

Castvoteskipdayjimithy

Star Inkbright said...

You don't need to put your name if you vote to skip the day.
The "name" thing refers to the fact that if you vote to lynch a player, you have to write "castvote [name of player you want to lynch]"

Jimithy Tayithy said...

Oh ok

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

It's unfortunate that we don't have more to go on.

Typical of first days though.

Raven Astracae said...

I don't know, I feel like if no one is going to say anything....

Maybe we should just skip day.

Unless someone else is planning to come out with information, we'll just continue to speculate on the nothing we have.

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

I mean I guess.

My gut is telling me to wait for it wait for it wait for it wait for it i am inimitable i am an original but also nobody's talking so idk if there's actually anything worth waiting for. :-/

Dugglyn Carzainia said...

I kinda think maybe we should skip, too, but last time all the Mafia members were the ones who voted skip day first and I didn't want people thinking I was a Mafia member and also I wanted to wait and see if people were going to comment anymore.

But no ones commenting

But there's no doctor so someone is definitely going to die tonight.
We could get lucky and it could be the hidden neutral, because the neutral appears to be hostile, but more likely we'd loose another townie...

Idk, what do all yey'all think?

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

"Last time all the Mafia members were the ones who voted skip day first."

That's part of why I brought up the idea of skipping the day fairly early on but didn't actually vote to. I thought maybe Mafia members would jump on the idea and be like "alrighty yeah let's skip."

Jimithy voting skip now is mildly suspicious, but also he might just be really impatient. I know I'm really impatient. :-P

Fabi -- The killer that sends heart emojis at everyone and hasn't actually killed anyone yet said...

Basically my impatience/eagerness to skip and my instinct to distrust anyone who acts eager to skip are battling.

Jimithy Tayithy said...

Oh i am very impatient

Jimithy Tayithy said...

If no one is saying anything then we may as well skip coz otherwise we are just left waiting out the Mafia is obviously not going to say anything because they didn't say anything when we were talking about nothing so when we are saying nothing why do we expect them to say anything when we are not

Star Inkbright said...

castvote skipday

Yeah, I don't think anyone's going to say anything more, and I don't have enough evidence to lunch anyone.

Star Inkbright said...

^lynch

(Although I don't have enough evidence to lunch anyone either. :P)

Jimithy Tayithy said...

I like lunch

Raven Astracae said...

If we have a trigger happy, then there's a chance we get rid of either the neutral or a mafia member.

So like, someone definitely dies tonight, but it could be super good, yeah?

(Building off what Dugglyn said)

Taia, Raisin, A Good Bear (actually undead) :) said...

Unless somebody comes out with some new information to discuss, I don't think much more is going to be said. Especially without a doctor, information is risky - whatever hasn't come out by this stage, I don't think is going to come out today? I'm kind of anxious about the possibility that all we're doing by waiting is pressurising somebody to reveal their role way too soon in the game - which would be suicide for them, and depending on their role, potentially genocide for the rest of us. Not to say we HAVE to skip if some of us aren't sure, but if we're gonna wait the rest of the day... just, y'know, be careful about it.

Jimithy Tayithy said...

When does the day end

Jimithy Tayithy said...

Even if some1 does have info if its not enough to pin a Mafia down it is improbable that they will say

Star Inkbright said...

*nods at Taia*

@Raven: We'd need luck, though. :P

Jimithy, it says it at the top of the bloody page. :P Monday 8 PM.

Jimithy Tayithy said...

Even if some1 does have info if its not enough to pin a Mafia down it is improbable that they will say

Jimithy Tayithy said...

Thank you just getting abit impatient

Dark Midnight said...

CastVoteSkipDay

Raven Astracae said...

Star, my child, all we have in this game is luck. So positive spirits. Let's hope that someone dies tomorrow night that will offset the death of the doctor.

Anyway, I guess, we'e going around in circles???

Castvote Skipday

Star Inkbright said...

@Raven: :/ Well. I hope so. But I'm not optimistic about it.

Ah, four votes.

*looks around for Jai*

Jimithy Tayithy said...

Haha 4 votes the magic number

goodnight everyone enjoy your slumber

Star Inkbright said...

XD

Jimithy Tayithy said...

Or not if you have a night activity

Jimithy Tayithy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.